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The xG of Chess: Shark Points

@dboing said in #18:
> But normalization to same range as odds does not mean the internal model of SF scoring is based on odds.

True, however it's doesn't mean not that either. SF's evaluation is a well-trusted black box. If you want something better for the purposes of labeling blunders etc., you need a more sophisticated tool, or maybe it's fine to until proven otherwise make some assumptions and use what seems to work.
Compare different chess engine analysis's. If 3 out of 4 say the move is not good, than it's not good. If there are better lines, than assume they are or test them out.

I think these 4 chess engines have their own playing styles: Stockfish, Houdini, Lc0, Komodo.
If all 4 give the same analyse results than have faith that it's true.

Maybe an analysis needs different SF search values. Line 483 LastBestMoveDepth + 8 ... Why 8 and not say 18?
github.com/official-stockfish/Stockfish/blob/master/src/search.cpp
When doing an analyse it takes time or depth to do it well.
groups.google.com/g/fishcooking/c/y-5O41T2Lhw

www.quora.com/What-is-the-algorithm-behind-Stockfish-the-chess-engine
disservin.github.io/stockfish-docs/pages/Useful-data.html#elo-cost-of-small-hash

The default hash values are very low. What are the default server analysis values set at?
If the hash and threads was increased, would it not give better analysis results?
@Toadofsky said in #21:
> SF's evaluation is a well-trusted black box.

I applaud. Such patience with it. Yeah. Why throw what works against the wall to see what it is made of, so we can figure out if our trust is not a global trap.

I admire concise and expressive point of views. Even if not shared. I have this gnawing animal engine of curiosity inside of me, casting spotlight in obscure region of fog. certitude is boring.

PS: yes. my post was too concise, it lasted 2 hours, now... afterthoughts. I kind of rethorically painted myself in the looney bin, for fast readers... Sure, my instinct is to look under the rocks.. But to be faithful to my nuances buried before (for the fast readers that skip turbulences), I should say that I was saying something else. That UCI is still input outside the black box. So input depth. I mean yes UCI based tournaments are blind to certain things.

Lichess does not have to insist on being even more blind than UCI. It would benefit us, chess learners.. To use the measure instrument in more than its gladiator frenzy certification by ELO. As an instruments with some user settings, for more insight into our own chess play, not the engine play. There is a crack in the concise while expressive quote I selected. Trust for what? and where do we want the black box boundaries...
My words on the topic likely reveal my own feelings on the matter... but what can be done? I do not believe that I have spoken incorrectly, and yet my suggestions go ignored.
@Toadofsky said in #25:
>

I may have misunderstood the revealing. Actually I hesitate, about the quote being first degree or second degree. As in certain contexts, I do like to think while assigning some black-box attribute to parts of a model, often depending on the UI context of visible input- and visible output. But here.. we have the source-code, some recently improving body of documentation that is not just for internal dev. audience anymore, and the slowly evolving UCI command line interface that surely lichess has access to.

Some of your view in the past, seem to have been about prudence in sharing the "instability" at depths of SF search trees for user input position. I do not agree to that, because, it strenght that "trust" by omission of information.. That is one thing.

but that is arguably research mindset. What I have been trying to be more suble about is the extra black box that is unnecessary between user and lichess layer about UCI-SF. I am not talking about full UCI output even.. (although it could help users helping lichess, as even if dev-illiterate, chess players are a bunch of rational grinders with some imagination.. that can at least sound board things for lichess. or open mind doors... when not the annoying user side complainer, that some image of them might carry, me not having that image, but I sense overworked human resources might).

I am talking in the direction of the blog trying to find more information helpful for the user in learning mode.. PEDAGOGY!
In making more than one UCI parameter regime (ultimate depth, more and forever....), to get more than one "metric" (metric has a math. meaning for me) or measurement dimension, or evaluation scale for the same position evaluation (in context of game sequence).

Objective is more information about the nature of the user human chess from SF abilities to discover best moves but also some ordering of lesser moves..

research might be needed to establish an automatic way, to not need the user to use the full PV output (that lichess is adamant to spare the user some damaging exposure to), I have surrendered taoistically to that state of reality.

So. the knowers behind the UI of lichess, might just have to use shallower input depth or just follow the trace of the iterative deepening for the depths are which the called out full depth score difference "blunder" class of user move choice, at which SF first detects such difference from its leaf evaluations... I think I would be glad to help finding such things as preliminary reasearch to help the developpers. But working against cultural inertia is not a great motivator. Actually I suspect the devs would be able to figure it out. but if there is not intent to improve the use of the engine because of the expanding black box boundary spare the credulity of the user base mentality, such efforst become impossible to even imagine.

I have already seen some lichess user colleague (also chess mentor of mine) do a manual approximation and discuss it with me, using both lichess and command line.. (to get the reall thing, lichess forcing some ply per ply jumping added perturbations)

from shallow leaf evaluatoin spectrum (gamut or whatever, look at few top PVs wide enough mayeb) increase input depth (or follow iterative or the TT inputs before memory loss), until the ultimate depth previously called error shows its face...

then one could start leanring about things like was it a positional blunder (long term to conversoin or visible effect in the face at position) and short term blunder.. as we, learning users, (hence PEDAGOGY word before), do not do ultimate depth errors all the time.. In order words "depth to discovery" from the point of view of SF during iterative deepening. BTW if instead of seconds in the UI we could have max input depth control, together with PV width, we could as user figure it out.. but if lichess insists to spare our credulity and trust in the black box beyond UCI, then what i just suggested. automatize shallowest error characterization for enhance chess insight feedback to users.

some of us aspire to more than just oracle views of our chess play. some of us would like to have long arc story understanding of our own play.. some of us, are able to improve tactics elswhere than in our full games.

I just think it is a continuation of the full game contextualization or error feedback that lichess has started in adapting the SF output in its 3 bin error classicatoin for pedagogical use of SF.

one might have to accept that there is a pedagogical value in making user aware of the depth dimension of their errors.

that maybe game are not just strings of tactical segments patch à la queue leu leu... until last blunder ....

I would be glad to help.. this is inspireing. And is related to the blog, no joke. The blog is walking in that issue of depth to conversion.. and handling of imblanace over chess time.. having more than one UCI-SF point of view.. is a begginning.

not sure that just using the one D score along the chess time axis can give us that, as they blog seemed to have attempted.. or i did not understand yet.
there is blunder amplitude. we got that.. don't we (kidding a bit). And lichess made it game odds aware already (right?).

then there is depth.. since SF is selective and historically carrying its material domination legacy of hand-crafting ROTS in its evaltoins, ROT that are also share by many of us chess learners of the plebeian levels, why not tap on that selectivity (diplomatic choice of word), to its sharp discrete quality of depth to discovery of such detection.

amplitude X depth... we slowly can get to a more multidimensional view of chess position assessment with automatic tools, made accessible to the not clueless avid chess learners... Maybe that is a small user case among lichess users?
@Toadofsky said in #21:
> If you want something better for the purposes of labeling blunders etc., you need a more sophisticated tool, or maybe it's fine to until proven otherwise make some assumptions and use what seems to work.
@Toadofsky said in #25:
> My words on the topic likely reveal my own feelings on the matter... but what can be done? I do not believe that I have spoken incorrectly, and yet my suggestions go ignored.
@dboing said in #26:
> research might be needed to establish an automatic way, to not need the user to use the full PV output (that lichess is adamant to spare the user some damaging exposure to), I have surrendered taoistically to that state of reality.
>
> So. the knowers behind the UI of lichess, might just have to use shallower input depth or just follow the trace of the iterative deepening for the depths are which the called out full depth score difference "blunder" class of user move choice, at which SF first detects such difference from its leaf evaluations... I think I would be glad to help finding such things as preliminary reasearch to help the developpers. But working against cultural inertia is not a great motivator. Actually I suspect the devs would be able to figure it out...

youtu.be/LZgyVadkgmI?feature=shared&t=1545
Dear Toad of the Sky,

I have seen that video. maybe not in entirety. but I don't understand the point of putting it there. Or maybe I can guess, with uncertainty. It might be in the hand of the captain? Yes, this is a possibility: when I mention lichess I do include captain and counsels of captain or whoever can help in the direction I propose.

This is why I am not concise, possibly. I think I gave enough clues to what I mean. The mission of lichess, including teaching chess, I thought I could insist through multiple iterations.. Thank you for allowing me to develop it better (at least in my mind, it has become more concrete, whether my non-concise expression transmits further, time might tell.

I know quantity of rambling does not make a point.. but iterations through discussion as you have allowed, make help articulate the rambling by allowing it having some dialog shape. It helps. Our language and whatever logic could be supported by it, has developed through dialogs I would bet, before lectures (any way.. the debate gist of that is strong in me).
This article has a lot of text, but if I understand correctly the only thing that was actually done was mapping the centipawn eval to a simple curve between 0 and 1?